Would Israel Dare to Target Hamas Leaders in Egypt?

This question is frequently raised amid the escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas, especially after Israel announced its intention to target the group’s leaders wherever they may be. But could these operations extend into Egyptian territory? This scenario, while remote, carries immense risks that could lead to unpredictable consequences.

Factors That Might Push Israel to Consider This Scenario (But It Wouldn’t Dare)

Theoretically, Israel might view targeting Hamas leaders in Egypt, particularly in areas like Cairo, as an opportunity to strike at the top of the group’s leadership. Some believe that Egypt, by virtue of its role as a key mediator, might provide a safe haven for some of these leaders, making them a tempting target for Israel. Israel might consider this option out of a desire for revenge or to reinforce its sense of deterrence, especially if it feels that these leaders pose a direct threat to its security.

The Red Lines Preventing Israel from Taking This Step

Despite these potential motives, there are clear red lines that prevent Israel from undertaking such an operation. First and foremost, Egypt’s sovereignty is a red line that cannot be crossed. Any Israeli military operation inside Egyptian territory would be a blatant violation of Egyptian sovereignty, which would inevitably lead to a strong and decisive response from Cairo. Egypt is not just another Arab state; it is a major regional power with a formidable army capable of protecting its borders and deterring any aggression.

Secondly, Egyptian-Israeli relations, although not always cordial, are governed by a peace treaty since 1979. Any Israeli military action inside Egypt would mean the destruction of this treaty and an unprecedented threat to regional stability. Israel is well aware that its relationship with Egypt is essential for its long-term stability and that any reckless step could open up a new front that it cannot afford.

Thirdly, Egypt plays a pivotal role in mediating between Israel and Palestinian factions. This role is crucial for Israel itself, as it provides an indirect channel of communication with Hamas during crises and helps manage conflicts to avoid uncontrolled escalation. Targeting Hamas leaders in Egypt would completely undermine this role and increase the state of chaos and tension in the region.

Conclusion

Ultimately, it can be said that Israel would not dare to target Hamas leaders inside Egypt. This is not merely a matter of a military decision but a comprehensive strategic one. Israel understands that any such operation would have severe consequences, not only for its relations with Egypt but for the stability of the entire region. It is an uncalculated risk where Israel stands to lose far more than it could possibly gain. Therefore, it is likely that Israeli threats will remain within the framework of media statements, far from any actual action that would violate Egyptian sovereignty.

A historical photo during the handover of prisoners of the occupation army after the October 1973 war.